Zu R, Wu Y, Zhu F
Jiangsu Provincial Health and Anti-epidemic Station, Nanjing.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 1999 Aug;20(4):220-3.
To study its predictive significance of the direct use of surveillance data of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) collected in Jiangsu province, and find an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction.
A correlation analysis between the HFRS incidence rate and surveillance data collected in the past 12 years since 1986 was applied.
There was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and indoor density of rattus norvegicus (Rn), proportions of mixed species of rats and Rn with HFRS virus, indices of mixed species of rats and Rn with virus in the spring Relationship between HFRS incidence rate and densities of outdoor mixed species of rats and Apodemus agrarius (Aa), and proportions of mixed species and Aa with virus was all significant in autumn and winter. And, there was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average density of rats, proportion of rats with virus, index of rats with virus. There was no significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and human inapparent infection rate. The coefficients of correlation between HFRS incidence rate in the spring and indices of indoor mixed species of rats and Rn with virus were 0.8637 and 0.8295, respectively (P < 0.001). And, those between HFRS incidence rate and indices of outdoor mixed species of rats and Aa were 0.7089 and 0. 7258 in the autumn and winter, respectively (P < 0.01). The coefficients of correlation between HFRS incidence rate in the next spring and indices of outdoor mixed species and Aa with virus in the autumn were 0.7118 and 0.7113, respectively (P < 0.01). The coefficient of correlation between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average index of rats with virus was 0.9207 (P < 0.001).
The index of rats with virus was an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction of HFRS, and the density of rats may be the secondary choice.
研究江苏省肾综合征出血热（HFRS）监测数据直接用于预测的意义，寻找定性预测的首选指标。
对1986年以来12年收集的HFRS发病率与监测数据进行相关分析。
HFRS发病率与褐家鼠室内密度、褐家鼠与HFRS病毒的鼠种混合比例、春季褐家鼠与病毒的鼠种混合指数之间存在显著关系。HFRS发病率与秋冬季室外鼠种混合密度、黑线姬鼠密度以及鼠种与病毒的混合比例之间均存在显著关系。全年HFRS发病率与鼠类年平均密度、带病毒鼠比例、带病毒鼠指数之间存在显著关系。HFRS发病率与人群隐性感染率之间无显著关系。春季HFRS发病率与室内鼠种混合及带病毒褐家鼠指数的相关系数分别为0.8637和0.8295（P<0.001）。秋冬季HFRS发病率与室外鼠种混合及黑线姬鼠指数的相关系数分别为0.7089和0.7258（P<0.01）。次年春季HFRS发病率与秋季室外鼠种混合及带病毒黑线姬鼠指数的相关系数分别为0.7118和0.7113（P<0.01）。全年HFRS发病率与带病毒鼠年平均指数的相关系数为0.9207（P<0.001）。
带病毒鼠指数是HFRS定性预测的首选指标，鼠密度可能为次选指标。
