A stochastic model of radiation-induced bone marrow damage.

A stochastic model, based on consensus principles from radiation biology, is used to estimate bone-marrow stem cell pool survival (CFU-S and stroma cells) after irradiation. The dose response model consists of three coupled first order linear differential equations which quantitatively describe time dependent cellular damage, repair, and killing of red bone marrow cells. This system of differential equations is solved analytically through the use of a matrix approach for continuous and fractionated irradiations. The analytic solutions are confirmed through the dynamical solution of the model equations using SIMULINK. Rate coefficients describing the cellular processes of radiation damage and repair, extrapolated to humans from animal data sets and adjusted for neutron-gamma mixed fields, are employed in a SIMULINK analysis of criticality accidents. The results show that, for the time structures which may occur in criticality accidents, cell survival is established mainly by the average dose and dose rate.