Ranta J, Mäkelä P H, Takala A, Arjas E
Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, University of Helsinki, Finland.
Epidemiol Infect. 1999 Dec;123(3):359-71. doi: 10.1017/s0950268899003039.
A stochastic epidemic model was applied to meningococcal disease outbreaks in defined small populations such as military garrisons and schools. Meningococci are spread primarily by asymptomatic carriers and only a small proportion of those infected develop invasive disease. Bayesian predictions of numbers of invasive cases were developed, based on observed data using a stochastic epidemic model. We used additional data sets to model both disease probability and duration of carriage. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques were used to compute the full posterior distribution which summarized all information drawn together from multiple sources.
一个随机流行病模型被应用于特定小群体（如军事驻地和学校）中的脑膜炎球菌病暴发。脑膜炎球菌主要通过无症状携带者传播，只有一小部分感染者会发展为侵袭性疾病。基于使用随机流行病模型的观测数据，对侵袭性病例数进行了贝叶斯预测。我们使用额外的数据集来模拟疾病概率和携带持续时间。采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗抽样技术来计算完整的后验分布，该分布总结了从多个来源汇总的所有信息。
