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[使用动态条件模型分析封闭集体中脑膜炎球菌感染的流行过程]

[Use of a dynamic conditional model for analyzing the epidemic process in meningococcal infection in the closed collective].

作者信息

Cherniatina L F, Berezhnoĭ V F

出版信息

Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 1982 Sep(9):96-9.

PMID:7148232
Abstract

The article deals with the main trends of using the dynamic model of the epidemic process in meningococcal infection in close groups with a view of solving scientific and practical tasks connected with the analysis of the epidemic situation, the formation of conditional groups with specified properties in relation to the spread of meningococci. The parameters used in the model, characterizing the process in the closed group, are described, and possible sources of information allowing to determine these parameters are indicated. Limited possibilities for practical use of mathematical simulation of the epidemic process in meningococcal infection at the contemporary level of knowledge is shown.

摘要

本文探讨了在密切接触人群中使用脑膜炎球菌感染流行过程动态模型的主要趋势,旨在解决与疫情分析相关的科学和实际任务,以及形成与脑膜炎球菌传播相关的具有特定属性的条件组。描述了该模型中用于表征封闭群体中流行过程的参数,并指出了可用于确定这些参数的可能信息来源。结果表明,在当前知识水平下,脑膜炎球菌感染流行过程数学模拟的实际应用可能性有限。

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