Coen P G, Heath P T, Garnett G P
Wellcome Trust for Epidemiology and Infectious Disease, Zoology Department, Oxford University.
Epidemiol Infect. 1999 Dec;123(3):389-402. doi: 10.1017/s0950268899002952.
In May 1991 an immunization programme against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection began within the Oxford region. We validate a deterministic mathematical model of Hib by comparison with the incidence of disease in the Oxford region, 1985-97. The comparison of model results with observed outcome allows an exploration of some of the poorly understood properties of the immunization programme. Model results and observed incidence are consistent with a vaccine that blocks the acquisition of carriage. Similarly, the data suggest that factors other than experience of Hib carriage are likely to have generated acquired immunity to Hib disease prior to the introduction of vaccination. Hence it is unlikely that waning of vaccine-derived protection will result in a resurgence of disease. The inclusion in the immunization schedule of a booster dose, as used in other countries, would have provided very little extra benefit.
1991年5月，牛津地区启动了一项针对b型流感嗜血杆菌（Hib）感染的免疫计划。我们通过与1985 - 1997年牛津地区的疾病发病率进行比较，验证了一个关于Hib的确定性数学模型。将模型结果与观察到的结果进行比较，有助于探究免疫计划中一些尚未完全理解的特性。模型结果与观察到的发病率一致，表明疫苗可阻止携带状态的获得。同样，数据表明，在引入疫苗接种之前，除了Hib携带经历之外的其他因素可能已经产生了对Hib疾病的获得性免疫。因此，疫苗衍生保护作用的减弱不太可能导致疾病再次流行。像其他国家那样在免疫程序中加入加强剂量，几乎不会带来额外的益处。
