Sieff E M, Dawes R M, Loewenstein G
University of North Carolina Health Care System, Chapel Hill, USA.
Am J Psychol. 1999 Summer;112(2):297-311.
The accuracy of predictions of how people will react to a medical test result is important because it may influence the decision to be tested. We hypothesized that people would overpredict their own long-term reactions to HIV test results (i.e., that they would feel better in response to seropositive results and worse in response to negative results than they expected to). In the first study phase, anticipations of reactions to positive and negative HIV test results were obtained from 50 subjects. In the second phase, postresult reactions were obtained about 5 weeks after subjects learned the results of their tests. The results suggest that people anticipate more distress given a positive result and anticipate less distress given a negative result than they experience. Cautions about the comparability of the 2 samples and recommendations for further research are discussed.
预测人们对医学检测结果的反应准确性很重要，因为这可能会影响是否进行检测的决定。我们假设人们会过度预测自己对艾滋病毒检测结果的长期反应（即，他们对血清阳性结果的感受会比预期更好，而对阴性结果的感受会比预期更糟）。在第一个研究阶段，从50名受试者那里获取了对阳性和阴性艾滋病毒检测结果反应的预期。在第二阶段，在受试者得知检测结果约5周后获取了结果后的反应。结果表明，与实际经历相比，人们预期阳性结果会带来更多痛苦，而预期阴性结果会带来更少痛苦。讨论了两个样本可比性的注意事项以及进一步研究的建议。
