Lipsey M W, Cordray D S
Department of Psychology and Human Development, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37203, USA.
Annu Rev Psychol. 2000;51:345-75. doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.51.1.345.
Experimental design is the method of choice for establishing whether social interventions have the intended effects on the populations they are presumed to benefit. Experience with field experiments, however, has revealed significant limitations relating chiefly to (a) practical problems implementing random assignment, (b) important uncontrolled sources of variability occurring after assignment, and (c) a low yield of information for explaining why certain effects were or were not found. In response, it is increasingly common for outcome evaluation to draw on some form of program theory and extend data collection to include descriptive information about program implementation, client characteristics, and patterns of change. These supplements often cannot be readily incorporated into standard experimental design, especially statistical analysis. An important advance in outcome evaluation is the recent development of statistical models that are able to represent individual-level change, correlates of change, and program effects in an integrated and informative manner.
实验设计是确定社会干预措施是否对其预期受益人群产生预期效果的首选方法。然而,实地实验的经验揭示了一些重大局限性,主要涉及:(a)实施随机分配的实际问题;(b)分配后出现的重要的、无法控制的变异性来源;(c)用于解释为何发现或未发现某些效果的信息产出较低。作为回应,结果评估越来越普遍地借鉴某种形式的项目理论,并扩展数据收集范围,以纳入有关项目实施、服务对象特征和变化模式的描述性信息。这些补充内容往往无法轻易纳入标准实验设计,尤其是统计分析。结果评估的一项重要进展是最近开发出了能够以综合且信息丰富的方式呈现个体层面变化、变化的相关因素以及项目效果的统计模型。