[Prediction of developmental problems and functional disabilities in infancy].

Methods to identify developmental problems in children have been requested for a long time. We wanted to find out whether high scores of cumulative non-optimality during infancy indicated disability or developmental problems. In a prospective study, a population of children (n = 1,217) was followed from pregnancy until the age of four. Medical, motor, and neurological data, as well as information about attention and social interaction were added in a cumulative non-optimality score. Information about family and environment was also included. When the children were four years of age, multiple methods were used to identify those with disability and developmental problems. Complete data were obtained for 926 children. The predictive values of the instrument were based on children diagnosed as functionally disabled at the age of four (n = 32). The sensitivity was 87.5%, specificity 93%, positive predictive value 30.8% and negative predictive value was 99.5%. These values are higher than those of comparable methods. The method could be implemented in the normal Norwegian "child health centre" without difficulty. The discussion in this article focuses on whether or not the method should be implemented in the ordinary health care system.