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孟买按部位和性别划分的癌症发病病例趋势及预测。

Trends and predictions of cancer incidence cases by site and sex for Mumbai.

作者信息

Yeole B B

机构信息

Bombay Cancer Registry, Indian Cancer Society, Parel, Mumbai, Maharashtra State, India.

出版信息

Indian J Cancer. 1999 Jun-Dec;36(2-4):163-78.

Abstract

In order to estimate the resources needed for the diagnosis, treatment, follow-up and rehabilitation services needed for cancer patients, it is important to know the magnitude of common cancers at present and in future. Keeping this view in mind an attempt has been made to predict cancer incidence cases for most common cancers for Greater Bombay upto the year 2002. The trend analysis is carried out for major 30 cancer sites for both the sexes using age incidence data of Greater Bombay for the period 1968 to 1987. The age-period-cohort model which was fitted to the data for studying trends for each site and sex has also been utilized for prediction also. Prediction was based on the assumption that the characteristic features of the model estimated from the observed rates would continue to hold during the prediction periods. Present trend analysis showed that cancers of the tongue, mouth, oropharynx, oesophagus, stomach and larynx in both sexes and cervix for females have registered a decline in incidence over a period of observation. While, during the same period, cancers of the liver, pancreas, bladder, brain and thyroid in both the sexes, breast, endometrium and ovary in females, and testis in males showed increasing trends in incidence, while cancers of the hypopharynx, lung, bone, connective tissue and lymphomas in both the sexes did not show any significant change in the incidence. In males in 1968-1972 cancer of the oesophagus was the leading cancer, followed by lung, larynx, tongue and stomach, while in 1988-2002 cancer of the lung will be the most predominant cancer, followed by hypopharynx, oesophagus, prostate and tongue. It is believed that the results of the present study will provide a sound basis for planning the cancer control, prevention, diagnostics, treatment and rehabilitation in Mumbai for the years to come.

摘要

为了估算癌症患者诊断、治疗、随访及康复服务所需的资源,了解当前及未来常见癌症的规模很重要。基于这一观点,已尝试预测大孟买地区截至2002年最常见癌症的发病病例数。利用1968年至1987年大孟买地区的年龄发病率数据,对30个主要癌症部位的男女发病趋势进行了分析。用于研究各部位和性别人群发病趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型也被用于预测。预测基于这样的假设,即从观察到的发病率估算出的模型特征在预测期内将持续保持。目前的趋势分析表明,在观察期内,男女的舌癌、口腔癌、口咽癌、食管癌、胃癌和喉癌以及女性宫颈癌的发病率呈下降趋势。而在同一时期,男女的肝癌、胰腺癌、膀胱癌、脑癌和甲状腺癌,女性的乳腺癌、子宫内膜癌和卵巢癌,男性的睾丸癌发病率呈上升趋势,而男女的下咽癌、肺癌、骨癌、结缔组织癌和淋巴瘤发病率没有显著变化。1968 - 1972年男性中食管癌是主要癌症,其次是肺癌、喉癌、舌癌和胃癌,而在1988 - 2002年肺癌将是最主要的癌症,其次是下咽癌、食管癌、前列腺癌和舌癌。相信本研究结果将为孟买未来几年的癌症控制、预防、诊断、治疗及康复规划提供坚实基础。

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