Rhine R J, Norton G W, Wasser S K
Department of Psychology, University of California-Riverside, USA.
Am J Primatol. 2000 Aug;51(4):229-41. doi: 10.1002/1098-2345(200008)51:4<229::AID-AJP2>3.0.CO;2-C.
The relationship between longevity and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) was studied in free-ranging female baboons of Mikumi National Park, Tanzania. A severe population decline occurred between the 12th and 20th years of the study. The total sample consisted of 72 females born and reaching adulthood before the start of the population decline. There were 27 females who were adult at the start of the study and 45 who became adult within the 12 years prior to the decline. The subjects were studied until all 72 were dead and all of their offspring were either dead or at least six years old; this took 24 years. The relationship of longevity to LRS was statistically significant for the total sample and for both sub-samples, with 70% of the total variance in LRS accounted for by longevity. Longevity was linked to LRS via a chain of statistically significant relationships: The longer the life span, the longer the reproductive life; the longer the reproductive life, the more offspring produced; the more offspring produced, the higher the LRS. Mean LRS, life span, and reproductive longevity all differed between the two sub-samples. Since the sub-samples were time-linked to a population decline affecting longevity, either sub-sample separately would fail to reflect the broader picture. This illustrates the importance of appreciable sample sizes from long-term studies in helping understand the dynamics between life history estimates and ecological conditions in variable environments.
在坦桑尼亚米库米国家公园自由放养的雌性狒狒中,研究了寿命与终生繁殖成功率(LRS)之间的关系。在研究的第12年至第20年期间,出现了严重的种群数量下降。总样本包括72只在种群数量下降开始之前出生并成年的雌性狒狒。有27只雌性狒狒在研究开始时已成年,45只在数量下降前的12年内成年。对这些研究对象进行跟踪研究,直到所有72只都死亡,且它们所有的后代要么死亡,要么至少6岁;这一过程持续了24年。对于总样本以及两个子样本而言,寿命与LRS之间的关系在统计学上具有显著意义,LRS中70%的总方差可由寿命来解释。寿命通过一系列具有统计学意义的关系与LRS相关联:寿命越长,繁殖寿命越长;繁殖寿命越长,生育的后代越多;生育的后代越多,LRS越高。两个子样本的平均LRS、寿命和繁殖寿命均有所不同。由于子样本在时间上与影响寿命的种群数量下降相关联,单独的任何一个子样本都无法反映更全面的情况。这说明了长期研究中足够大的样本量对于帮助理解可变环境中生活史估计与生态条件之间动态关系的重要性。