Kramer K, Leinonen I, Loustau D
Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Int J Biometeorol. 2000 Aug;44(2):67-75. doi: 10.1007/s004840000066.
An overview is presented of the phenological models relevant for boreal coniferous, temperate-zone deciduous and Mediterranean coniferous forest ecosystems. The phenology of the boreal forests is mainly driven by temperature, affecting the timing of the start of the growing season and thereby its duration, and the level of frost hardiness and thereby the reduction of foliage area and photosynthetic capacity by severe frost events. The phenology of temperate-zone forests is also mainly driven by temperature. Since temperate-zone forests are mostly mixed-species deciduous forests, differences in phenological response may affect competition between tree species. The phenology of Mediterranean coniferous forests is mainly driven by water availability, affecting the development of leaf area, rather than the timing of phenological events. These phenological models were subsequently coupled to the process-based forest model FORGRO to evaluate the effect of different climate change scenarios on growth. The results indicate that the phenology of each of the forest types significantly affects the growth response to a given climate change scenario. The absolute responses presented in this study should, however, be used with caution as there are still uncertainties in the phenological models, the growth models, the parameter values obtained and the climate change scenarios used. Future research should attempt to reduce these uncertainties. It is recommended that phenological models that describe the mechanisms by which seasonality in climatic drivers affects the phenological aspects of trees should be developed and carefully tested. Only by using such models may we make an assessment of the impact of climate change on the functioning and productivity of different forest ecosystems.
本文概述了与北方针叶林、温带落叶林和地中海针叶林生态系统相关的物候模型。北方森林的物候主要受温度驱动，温度影响生长季开始的时间，进而影响其持续时间，还影响抗冻性水平，从而影响严重霜冻事件导致的叶面积和光合能力的降低。温带森林的物候也主要受温度驱动。由于温带森林大多是混交落叶林，物候响应的差异可能会影响树种间的竞争。地中海针叶林的物候主要受水分供应驱动，影响叶面积的发育，而非物候事件的时间。这些物候模型随后与基于过程的森林模型FORGRO耦合，以评估不同气候变化情景对生长的影响。结果表明，每种森林类型的物候都显著影响对给定气候变化情景的生长响应。然而，本研究中给出的绝对响应应谨慎使用，因为物候模型、生长模型、获得的参数值以及使用的气候变化情景仍存在不确定性。未来的研究应试图减少这些不确定性。建议开发并仔细测试描述气候驱动因素的季节性影响树木物候方面机制的物候模型。只有使用这样的模型，我们才能评估气候变化对不同森林生态系统功能和生产力的影响。
