de Garín A B, Bejarán R A, Carbajo A E, de Casas S C, Schweigmann N J
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Piso, Argentina.
Int J Biometeorol. 2000 Sep;44(3):148-56. doi: 10.1007/s004840000051.
The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main urban vector responsible for the transmission of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever. The city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, is located at the southern end of the world distribution of the species. The population abundance of Ae. aegypti is mainly regulated by environmental factors. We calculated the potential number of times that a female could lay eggs during its mean life expectancy, based on potential egg production and daily meteorological records. The model considers those variables implying physical hazard to the survival of Ae. aegypti, mosquito flying activity and oviposition. The results, obtained after calibration and validation of the model with field observations, show significant correlation (P<0.001) for different lags depending on the life stage. From these results, more favorable atmospheric conditions for Ae. aegypti reproduction (linked to the urban climatic change) can be observed. The climatic variability in the last decade resembles conditions at the end of 19th century.
埃及伊蚊是传播登革热和登革出血热的主要城市病媒。阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯市位于该物种全球分布的南端。埃及伊蚊的种群丰度主要受环境因素调节。我们根据潜在的产卵量和每日气象记录，计算了一只雌蚊在其平均预期寿命期间可能产卵的次数。该模型考虑了那些对埃及伊蚊生存、蚊虫飞行活动和产卵有物理危害的变量。通过现场观测对模型进行校准和验证后得到的结果表明，根据不同的发育阶段，不同滞后时间存在显著相关性（P<0.001）。从这些结果可以看出，对埃及伊蚊繁殖更有利的大气条件（与城市气候变化有关）。过去十年的气候变率类似于19世纪末的情况。
