Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Departamento de Parasitología, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Carabobo, Valencia, Venezuela.
Sci Rep. 2018 Apr 10;8(1):5727. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-24003-z.
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease of global impact. In Venezuela, dengue has emerged as one of the most important public health problems of urban areas with frequent epidemics since 2001. The long-term pattern of this disease has involved not only a general upward trend in cases but also a dramatic increase in the size and frequency of epidemic outbreaks. By assuming that climate variability has a relevant influence on these changes in time, we quantified the periodicity of dengue incidence in time-series of data from two northern regions of Venezuela. Disease cycles of 1 and 3-4 years (p < 0.05) were detected. We determined that dengue cycles corresponded with local climate and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation at both seasonal and inter-annual scales (every 2-3 years). Dengue incidence peaks were more prevalent during the warmer and dryer years of El Niño confirming that ENSO is a regional climatic driver of such long-term periodicity through local changes in temperature and rainfall. Our findings support the evidence of the effect of climate on dengue dynamics and advocate the incorporation of climate information in the surveillance and prediction of this arboviral disease in Venezuela.
登革热是一种具有全球影响的蚊媒病毒性疾病。在委内瑞拉，自 2001 年以来，登革热已成为城市地区最重要的公共卫生问题之一，经常发生流行。这种疾病的长期模式不仅涉及病例的总体上升趋势，还涉及疫情规模和频率的急剧增加。由于假设气候变率对这些时间变化具有相关影响，因此我们对委内瑞拉两个北部地区的登革热发病率时间序列数据进行了量化。在时间序列中检测到了 1 年和 3-4 年的疾病周期（p < 0.05）。我们确定，登革热周期与当地气候和厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）变化相对应，在季节性和年际尺度上（每 2-3 年一次）。在厄尔尼诺现象期间，即温度较高和较干燥的年份，登革热发病率高峰更为普遍，这证实了 ENSO 通过当地温度和降雨的变化，是这种长期周期性的区域气候驱动因素。我们的研究结果支持了气候对登革热动态影响的证据，并主张在委内瑞拉，将气候信息纳入对这种虫媒病毒病的监测和预测中。
