Burchinal M R, Roberts J E, Hooper S, Zeisel S A
Frank Porter Graham Child Development Center, Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 27599-8185, USA.
Dev Psychol. 2000 Nov;36(6):793-807. doi: 10.1037//0012-1649.36.6.793.
Although it is generally accepted that social risk factors predict delays in early cognitive and language development, there is less agreement about how to represent such associations statistically. Using data collected prospectively on 87 African American children during their first 4 years, this study examined 3 analytic methods for describing a child's level of social risk: (a) individual risk variables, (b) factor scores derived from those risk variables, and (c) a risk index computed by tallying the number of risk conditions present. Comparisons indicated that the individual-risk-variables approach provides better overall prediction of developmental outcomes at a particular age but is less useful in predicting developmental patterns. The risk-factor approach provides good prediction of developmental trajectories when sample sizes are moderate to large. Finally, the risk-index approach is useful for relating social risk to developmental patterns when a large number of risk variables are assessed with a small sample or when other constructs are of primary interest.
虽然人们普遍认为社会风险因素可预测早期认知和语言发展的延迟，但对于如何从统计学角度描述此类关联，人们的共识较少。本研究利用前瞻性收集的87名非裔美国儿童头4年的数据，考察了3种描述儿童社会风险水平的分析方法：(a) 个体风险变量；(b) 从这些风险变量得出的因子得分；(c) 通过计算存在的风险状况数量得出的风险指数。比较结果表明，个体风险变量方法能更好地总体预测特定年龄的发育结果，但在预测发育模式方面作用较小。当样本量适中至较大时，风险因素方法能很好地预测发育轨迹。最后，当用小样本评估大量风险变量或其他构念是主要关注点时，风险指数方法有助于将社会风险与发育模式联系起来。
