Stanek E J, Calabrese E J
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst 01002, USA.
Risk Anal. 2000 Oct;20(5):627-35. doi: 10.1111/0272-4332.205057.
Ingestion of contaminated soil by children may result in significant exposure to toxic substances at contaminated sites. Estimates of such exposure are based on extrapolation of short-term-exposure estimates to longer time periods. This article provides daily estimates of soil ingestion on 64 children between the ages of 1 and 4 residing at a Superfund site; these values are employed to estimate the distribution of 7-day average soil ingestion exposures (mean, 31 mg/day; median, 17 mg/day) at a contaminated site over different time periods. Best linear unbiased predictors of the 95th-percentile of soil ingestion over 7 days, 30 days, 90 days, and 365 days are 133 mg/day, 112 mg/day, 108 mg/day and 106 mg/day, respectively. Variance components estimates (excluding titanium and outliers, based on Tukey's far-out criteria) are given for soil ingestion between subjects (59 mg/day)2, between days on a subject (95 mg/day)2, and for uncertainty on a subject-day (132 mg/day)2. These results expand knowledge of potential exposure to contaminants among young children from soil ingestion at contaminated sites. They also provide basic distributions that serve as a starting point for use in Monte Carlo risk assessments.
儿童摄入受污染土壤可能会导致在污染场地大量接触有毒物质。此类接触的估计是基于将短期接触估计值外推至更长时间段得出的。本文提供了居住在一个超级基金场地的64名1至4岁儿童的每日土壤摄入量估计值；这些值用于估计在不同时间段内污染场地7天平均土壤摄入接触量的分布情况（均值为31毫克/天；中位数为17毫克/天）。7天、30天、90天和365天土壤摄入量第95百分位数的最佳线性无偏预测值分别为133毫克/天、112毫克/天、108毫克/天和106毫克/天。给出了受试者之间土壤摄入量（59毫克/天）²、受试者不同日期之间土壤摄入量（95毫克/天）²以及受试者某一天摄入量不确定性（132毫克/天）²的方差分量估计值（基于Tukey的异常值标准，不包括钛和异常值）。这些结果扩展了对污染场地儿童因摄入土壤而潜在接触污染物的认识。它们还提供了基本分布，作为蒙特卡洛风险评估的起点。
