Foxman B, Barlow R, D'Arcy H, Gillespie B, Sobel J D
Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Ann Epidemiol. 2000 Nov;10(8):509-15. doi: 10.1016/s1047-2797(00)00072-7.
To estimate the annual incidence, cumulative probability of presumed urinary tract infection (UTI) by age, and the social costs.
Analysis of a random digit dialing survey of 2000 women in the United States.
10.8 percent (95% CI: 9.4, 12.1%) of women aged 18 and older reported at least one presumed UTI during the past 12 months, with the majority of the cases occurring among women with a history of two or more UTI episodes in their life. We estimate that by age 24, one-third of women will have at least one physician-diagnosed UTI that was treated with prescription medication. Overall, an estimated 11.3 million women in the United States had at least one presumed UTI treated with antibiotics in 1995. We estimate the annual cost of UTI cases with prescriptions to be $1.6 billion in 1995. If the costs occurring after 1995 are discounted at 5% annually, the total cost over 20 years has a present value of $25.5 billion.
If a vaccine were developed that would prevent either initial or recurrent UTI the net benefits to society would be substantial, even at a developmental cost of one billion dollars.
评估按年龄划分的疑似尿路感染(UTI)的年发病率、累积概率以及社会成本。
对美国2000名女性进行随机数字拨号调查分析。
18岁及以上女性中有10.8%(95%置信区间:9.4%,12.1%)报告在过去12个月中至少有一次疑似UTI,大多数病例发生在一生中曾有两次或更多次UTI发作史的女性中。我们估计,到24岁时,三分之一的女性将至少有一次经医生诊断并接受处方药治疗的UTI。总体而言,估计1995年美国有1130万女性至少有一次疑似UTI接受了抗生素治疗。我们估计1995年UTI病例的处方药年度成本为16亿美元。如果1995年以后发生的成本按每年5%进行贴现,20年的总成本现值为255亿美元。
如果研发出一种能预防初次或复发性UTI的疫苗,即使研发成本为10亿美元,对社会的净收益也将是巨大的。