Witting L
Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, P. O. Box 570, DK-3900 Nuuk, Greenland.
Bull Math Biol. 2000 Nov;62(6):1109-36. doi: 10.1006/bulm.2000.0200.
Several animal species have cyclic population dynamics with phase-related cycles in life history traits such as body mass, reproductive rate, and pre-reproductive period. Although many mechanisms have been proposed there is no agreement on the cause of these cycles, and no population equation that deduces both the abundance and the life history cycles from basic ecological constraints has been formulated. Here I deduce a population dynamic equation from the selection pressure of density dependent competitive interactions in order to explain the cyclic dynamics in abundance and life history traits. The model can explain cycles by evolutionary changes in the genotype or by plastic responses in the phenotype. It treats the population dynamic growth rate as an initial condition, and its density independent fundament is Fisher's (1930, The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, Oxford: Clarendon) fundamental theorem of natural selection that predicts a hyper-geometrical increase in abundance. The predicted periods coincide with the cyclic dynamics of Lepidoptera, and the Calder hypothesis, which suggests that the period of population cycles is proportional to the 1/4 power of body mass, follows from first principles of the proposed density dependent ecology.
几种动物物种具有周期性的种群动态，在诸如体重、繁殖率和繁殖前期等生活史特征方面存在与阶段相关的周期。尽管已经提出了许多机制，但对于这些周期的成因尚无定论，而且尚未制定出一个能从基本生态约束条件推导出种群数量和生活史周期的种群方程。在此，我从密度依赖竞争相互作用的选择压力推导出一个种群动态方程，以解释种群数量和生活史特征的周期性动态。该模型可以通过基因型的进化变化或表型的可塑性反应来解释周期。它将种群动态增长率视为初始条件，其密度独立基础是费希尔（1930年，《自然选择的遗传理论》，牛津：克拉伦登出版社）的自然选择基本定理，该定理预测种群数量呈超几何增长。预测的周期与鳞翅目昆虫的周期性动态相吻合，并且卡尔德假说（该假说认为种群周期的时长与体重的1/4次幂成正比）可从所提出的密度依赖生态学的第一原理推导得出。
