Conti S, Masocco M, Pezzotti P, Toccaceli V, Vichi M, Boros S, Urciuoli R, Valdarchi C, Rezza G
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2000 Dec 15;25(5):451-8. doi: 10.1097/00042560-200012150-00011.
A decrease in HIV-related mortality and morbidity has been observed since 1996 in most developed countries as a consequence of the extensive use of combined antiretroviral therapies. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether combined antiretroviral therapies had a differential impact on the survival of patients with different AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs).
In total, 35,318 persons representing all the adults with AIDS (PWAs) diagnosed in Italy from January 1, 1990 to August 31, 1998 were studied. Actuarial life tables and the Kaplan-Meier method were used to estimate the cumulative probability of survival; the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate adjusted relative hazard of death (RH).
Among PWAs diagnosed after 1995, the proportion of survivors 24 months after diagnosis was more than doubled (66%) compared with that of PWAs diagnosed before the end of 1995 (31%). Significantly decreased RHs for some ADIs were observed as early as 1996 (i.e., esophageal candidiasis, Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, brain toxoplasmosis, HIV-wasting syndrome, and pulmonary tuberculosis). In the last period (1997-1998), the decrease was marked and significant for almost all the ADIs, ranging from 55% to 80% compared with the RHs of the reference year (1995). Conversely, primary lymphoma of the brain and Burkitt's lymphoma showed a low and not statistically significant decrease; these were the ADIs with the worst outcome.
After 1995, there was a rather uniform increase in the survival of PWAs diagnosed with most specific ADIs but not for patients affected by primary brain lymphoma and Burkitt's lymphoma. The determinants of this differential effect need to be investigated.
自1996年以来,在大多数发达国家,由于广泛使用联合抗逆转录病毒疗法,与艾滋病相关的死亡率和发病率有所下降。本研究的目的是调查联合抗逆转录病毒疗法对患有不同艾滋病定义疾病(ADI)的患者的生存是否有不同影响。
总共研究了1990年1月1日至1998年8月31日在意大利诊断出的所有成年艾滋病患者(PWA),共35318人。使用精算生命表和Kaplan-Meier方法估计生存累积概率;使用多变量Cox比例风险模型估计调整后的死亡相对风险(RH)。
在1995年后诊断出的PWA中,诊断后24个月的幸存者比例(66%)比1995年底前诊断出的PWA(31%)增加了一倍多。早在1996年就观察到某些ADI的RH显著下降(即食管念珠菌病、卡氏肺孢子虫肺炎、脑弓形虫病、艾滋病消瘦综合征和肺结核)。在最后阶段(1997 - 1998年),几乎所有ADI的下降都很显著,与参考年份(1995年)的RH相比,下降幅度在55%至80%之间。相反,原发性脑淋巴瘤和伯基特淋巴瘤的下降幅度较小且无统计学意义;这些是预后最差的ADI。
1995年后,被诊断患有大多数特定ADI的PWA的生存率有相当一致的提高,但原发性脑淋巴瘤和伯基特淋巴瘤患者除外。这种差异效应的决定因素需要进一步研究。