Schliekelman P, Gould F
Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh 27695-8203, USA.
J Econ Entomol. 2000 Dec;93(6):1566-79. doi: 10.1603/0022-0493-93.6.1566.
With recent advances in genetics, many new strategies for pest control have become feasible. This is the second article in which we model new techniques for pest control based on the mass release of genetically modified insects. In this article we model the release of insects carrying a dominant and redundant female killing or sterilizing (FK) allele on multiple genetic loci. If such insects are released into a target population, the FK allele can become widely spread in the population through the males while reducing the population each generation by killing females. We allow the number of loci used to vary from 1 to 20. We also allow the FK allele to carry a fitness cost in males due to the gene insertions. Using a model, we explore the effectiveness and optimal strategies for such releases. In the most ideal circumstances (no density-dependence and released insects equal in fitness to wild ones), FK releases are several orders of magnitude more effective than equal sized sterile male releases. For example, a single release of 19 FK-bearing males for every two wild males, with the released males carrying the FK allele on 10 loci, reduces the target population to 0.002% of no-release size. An equal sized sterile release reduces the target population to 5% of no-release size. We also show how the effectiveness of the technique decreases as the fitness cost of the FK alleles in males increases. For example, the above mentioned release reduces the target population to 0.7% of no-release size if each FK allele carries a fitness cost in males of 5%. Adding a simple model for density-dependence and assuming that each of the released males carries the FK allele on six loci, we show that the release size necessary to reduce the target population to 1/100 of no-release size in 10 generations of releases varies from 0.44:1 to 4:1 (depending on parameter values). We also calculate the optimal number of loci on which to put the FK allele under various circumstances.
随着遗传学的最新进展，许多新的害虫防治策略已变得可行。这是我们基于大量释放转基因昆虫对害虫防治新技术进行建模的第二篇文章。在本文中，我们对携带位于多个基因位点上的显性且冗余的雌性致死或绝育（FK）等位基因的昆虫释放进行建模。如果将此类昆虫释放到目标种群中，FK等位基因可通过雄性在种群中广泛传播，同时通过杀死雌性来使种群数量逐代减少。我们允许用于此目的的基因位点数从1变化到20。我们还考虑到由于基因插入，FK等位基因在雄性中会带来适合度代价。通过一个模型，我们探索此类释放的有效性和最优策略。在最理想的情况下（不存在密度依赖性且释放的昆虫与野生昆虫适合度相同），FK释放比同等规模的不育雄性释放有效几个数量级。例如，每两个野生雄性单次释放19个携带FK等位基因的雄性，且释放的雄性在10个基因位点上携带FK等位基因，可将目标种群数量减少到无释放时规模的0.002%。同等规模的不育释放则将目标种群数量减少到无释放时规模的5%。我们还展示了随着FK等位基因在雄性中的适合度代价增加，该技术的有效性如何降低。例如，如果每个FK等位基因在雄性中带来5%的适合度代价，上述释放会将目标种群数量减少到无释放时规模的0.7%。添加一个简单的密度依赖性模型，并假设每个释放的雄性在6个基因位点上携带FK等位基因，我们表明在10代释放中将目标种群数量减少到无释放时规模的1/100所需的释放规模在0.44:1到4:1之间变化（取决于参数值）。我们还计算了在各种情况下放置FK等位基因的最优基因位点数。
