VanDerhei J, Copeland C
Temple University, USA.
EBRI Issue Brief. 2001 Apr(232):1-23.
A rapidly growing public policy concern facing the United States is whether future generations of retired Americans, particularly those in the "baby boom" generation, will have adequate retirement incomes. One reason is that Social Security's projected long-term financial shortfall could result in a reduction in the current-law benefit promises made to future generations of retirees. Another reason is that many baby boomers will be retiring with employment-based defined contribution (DC) plans, as opposed to the "traditional" defined benefit (DB) plans that historically have been the predominant source of employer-provided retirement income. These factors are likely to reduce the amount of life annuity benefits that future retirees will receive relative to current retirees, raising questions as to whether other sources of retirement income--such as individual account plans (DC plans and individual retirement accounts, or IRAs)--will make up the difference. This Issue Brief highlights the changes in private pension plan participation for DB and DC plans and provides some possible explanations for these changes. Results are presented from the Employee Benefit Research Institute's (EBRI) Retirement Income Projection Model that quantify how much the importance of individual account plans is expected to increase because of these changes. This Issue Brief also discusses the risk of outliving one's assets, since a greater fraction of pension wealth is projected to come from "nonguaranteed" sources. Results of the model are compared by gender for cohorts born between 1936 and 1964 in order to estimate the percentage of retirees' retirement wealth that will be derived from DB plans versus DC plans and IRAs over the next three decades. Under the model's baseline assumptions, both males and females are found to have an appreciable drop in the percentage of private retirement income that is attributable to defined benefit plans (other than cash balance plans). In addition, results show a clear increase in the income retirees will receive that will have to be managed by the retiree. This makes the risk of longevity more central to retirees' expenditure decisions. The implications of these model results for retirees are significant. First, individuals--rather than the pension plan sponsor--increasingly will have to manage their retirement assets and bear the risk of investment losses. Second, since most retirees' non-Social Security retirement income will be distributed as a lump sum or in periodic payements (from a defined contribution plan or IRA) rather than as a regular paycheck for life (from a defined benefit plan), retirees will need either to purchase an annuity from an insurance company or carefully manage their individual rate of spending in order to avoid outliving their assets.
美国面临的一个迅速增长的公共政策问题是，未来几代美国退休人员，尤其是“婴儿潮”一代，是否会有足够的退休收入。一个原因是，社会保障预计的长期资金缺口可能导致对未来几代退休人员做出的现行法律福利承诺减少。另一个原因是，许多婴儿潮一代退休时将依靠基于就业的固定缴款（DC）计划，而不是历史上一直是雇主提供退休收入主要来源的“传统”固定收益（DB）计划。这些因素可能会减少未来退休人员相对于当前退休人员将获得的终身年金福利金额，引发了关于其他退休收入来源——如个人账户计划（DC计划和个人退休账户，即IRA）——是否会弥补差额的问题。本问题简报重点介绍了DB计划和DC计划在私人养老金计划参与方面的变化，并为这些变化提供了一些可能的解释。报告展示了员工福利研究协会（EBRI）退休收入预测模型的结果，该模型量化了由于这些变化个人账户计划的重要性预计将增加多少。本问题简报还讨论了资产耗尽的风险，因为预计养老金财富中更大的一部分将来自“无担保”来源。该模型的结果按性别对1936年至1964年出生的人群进行了比较，以便估计在未来三十年中退休人员的退休财富中来自DB计划与DC计划及IRA的比例。在该模型的基线假设下，发现男性和女性来自固定收益计划（现金余额计划除外）的私人退休收入百分比都有明显下降。此外，结果显示退休人员将获得的必须由退休人员管理的收入明显增加。这使得长寿风险在退休人员的支出决策中变得更加核心。这些模型结果对退休人员的影响重大。首先，个人——而不是养老金计划发起人——将越来越多地必须管理自己的退休资产并承担投资损失的风险。其次，由于大多数退休人员的非社会保障退休收入将以一次性付款或定期付款（来自固定缴款计划或IRA）的形式分配，而不是以终身定期工资（来自固定收益计划）的形式分配，退休人员将需要要么从保险公司购买年金，要么仔细管理自己的个人支出率，以避免资产耗尽。
