Feinglass J, Pearce W H, Martin G J, Gibbs J, Cowper D, Sorensen M, Henderson W G, Daley J, Khuri S
Division of General Internal Medicine, Northwestern University Medical School, and the VA Lakeside Medical Center, Chicago, IL, USA.
Surgery. 2001 Jul;130(1):21-9. doi: 10.1067/msy.2001.115359.
A surgical risk model is used to analyze postoperative mortality and late survival for older veterans who underwent above- or below-knee amputations in 119 Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals from 1991 to 1995.
Preoperative medical conditions and laboratory values abstracted by the VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program were linked to subsequent hospitalization and survival through 1999. Logistic regression and proportional hazards models were used to develop risk indexes for postoperative mortality and long-term survival.
Thirty-day postoperative mortality was 6.3% for 1909 below-knee and 13.3% for 2152 above-knee amputees. Mortality varied greatly between the lowest-highest risk index quartiles (0.8%-18.4% for below-knee amputation and 2.3%-31.1% for above-knee amputation). Surviving patients had 10,827 subsequent VA hospitalizations during a median 32-month follow-up. Survival probabilities for below- and above-knee amputees were 77% and 59% at 1 year, 57% and 39% at 3 years, and 28% and 20% at 7.5 years. The lowest quartile of survival risk had a 61% five-year survival compared with 14% for the highest-risk quartile.
A generic surgical risk model can be of use in stratifying prognosis after major amputation. The heavy burden of hospital use by these patients suggests the need for better disease management for this high-risk, high-cost patient population.
采用手术风险模型分析1991年至1995年期间在119家退伍军人事务(VA)医院接受膝上或膝下截肢手术的老年退伍军人的术后死亡率和远期生存率。
VA国家外科质量改进计划提取的术前医疗状况和实验室值与1999年之前的后续住院治疗和生存情况相关联。使用逻辑回归和比例风险模型来制定术后死亡率和长期生存的风险指数。
1909例膝下截肢患者术后30天死亡率为6.3%,2152例膝上截肢患者为13.3%。最低-最高风险指数四分位数之间的死亡率差异很大(膝下截肢为0.8%-18.4%,膝上截肢为2.3%-31.1%)。在中位32个月的随访期间,存活患者随后有10827次VA医院住院治疗。膝下和膝上截肢患者1年时的生存概率分别为77%和59%,3年时为57%和39%,7.5年时为28%和20%。生存风险最低的四分位数五年生存率为61%,而最高风险四分位数为14%。
通用的手术风险模型可用于对大截肢术后的预后进行分层。这些患者沉重的医院使用负担表明,对于这一高风险、高成本患者群体,需要更好的疾病管理。