Tietze C, Bongaarts J
Stud Fam Plann. 1975 May;6(5):114-20.
A computerized model that simulates reproductive events during the childbearing years of a cohort of women is used to analyze the impact of contraception and induced abortion on fertility. Four different reproductive regimens are investigated: (2) contraception only, (2) abortion only, (3) abortion as a backstop to contraception, and (4) combinations of abortion and contraception. It is concluded that in historical as well as in modern populations, levels of fertility near replacement are unlikely to be obtained without the use of induced abortion.
一个模拟一组女性育龄期生殖事件的计算机模型被用于分析避孕和人工流产对生育率的影响。研究了四种不同的生殖方案:(1)仅采用避孕措施;(2)仅采用人工流产;(3)以人工流产作为避孕的补充措施;(4)人工流产与避孕措施相结合。研究得出结论,在历史人口以及现代人口中,如果不采用人工流产,不太可能实现接近更替水平的生育率。