Freedman R, Chang M C, Sun T H
Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48104-2590.
Stud Fam Plann. 1994 Nov-Dec;25(6 Pt 1):317-31.
This article compares the fertility experience of Taiwanese in the eight years since the total fertility rate reached 2.1 with that before fertility reached replacement levels. During the earlier period, two-thirds of the fertility decline resulted from falling marital fertility and one-third from higher age at marriage. The changing age distribution retarded this decline. Since 1983, the further decline to 1.7-1.8 has been entirely the result of the trend toward later marriage. Older age distributions now facilitate the decline. Births postponed by those marrying later make the conventional TFR misleading. Computation based on parity-progression ratios raise TFRs from 1.7 to 2.0, a number less alarming to policymakers. Contraceptive prevalence is at saturation levels in all major populations strata. The "KAP-GAP" has disappeared. What would have happened without Taiwan's effective family planning program is impossible to determine, but clearly, contraceptive services supplied by the program were the major proximate cause of Taiwan's fertility decline.
本文比较了台湾地区总生育率达到2.1之后八年里台湾民众的生育经历与生育率达到更替水平之前的生育经历。在早期，生育率下降的三分之二源于婚内生育率的下降，三分之一源于结婚年龄的提高。不断变化的年龄分布减缓了这种下降。自1983年以来，生育率进一步降至1.7 - 1.8完全是晚婚趋势的结果。现在较高的年龄分布加速了下降。晚婚者推迟生育使得传统的总生育率具有误导性。基于生育递进比的计算将总生育率从1.7提高到2.0，这一数字对政策制定者来说不那么令人担忧。在所有主要人口阶层中，避孕普及率已达到饱和水平。“知识 - 态度 - 实践差距”已经消失。如果没有台湾有效的计划生育项目会发生什么难以确定，但显然，该项目提供的避孕服务是台湾生育率下降的主要直接原因。
