Saltzman B E
Department of Environmental Health, University of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.
Appl Occup Environ Hyg. 2001 Jul;16(7):745-54. doi: 10.1080/10473220121485.
A practical method is proposed for determining human dose-response curves based on reasonable assumptions and simplifications. The epidemiological data needed are the fractions of the population suffering an adverse response from exposures to two or more patterns of fluctuating concentrations of a pollutant, and the statistical parameters of each pattern. The method calculates the two parameters of the threshold type dose-response curve of the pollutant, represented by a cumulative lognormal distribution. This distribution was derived from a reasonable statistical model. The calculation does not require any arbitrary safety factors and yields central values. The dose-response parameters then may be used to calculate the health risk rate of exposure to any other fluctuating concentration pattern. Another method is proposed to select appropriate threshold limit values (TLVs) using calculations involving these parameters. Examples are given to illustrate the calculations. Results with hypothetical data gave apparently reasonable results. They showed the importance not only of the geometric mean concentration but also of the geometric standard deviations of both the concentrations and of the dose-response curve, that greatly influence the results. It is believed that results of useful accuracy should be obtained. Health risk rates are readily understood. They are useful for cost-benefit calculations. Relative rates can be used to compare the hazards of different operations and different plants. The method may make possible the development of standards specifying maximum allowable risk rates.
基于合理假设和简化，提出了一种确定人体剂量反应曲线的实用方法。所需的流行病学数据是暴露于污染物两种或更多种波动浓度模式下出现不良反应的人群比例，以及每种模式的统计参数。该方法计算由累积对数正态分布表示的污染物阈值型剂量反应曲线的两个参数。这种分布源自合理的统计模型。计算不需要任何任意的安全系数，并且得出中心值。然后，剂量反应参数可用于计算暴露于任何其他波动浓度模式下的健康风险率。还提出了另一种方法，利用涉及这些参数的计算来选择合适的阈限值（TLV）。给出了示例来说明计算过程。使用假设数据得出的结果显然合理。结果表明，不仅几何平均浓度，而且浓度的几何标准差以及剂量反应曲线的几何标准差都很重要，它们对结果有很大影响。据信应能获得具有有用精度的结果。健康风险率易于理解。它们对成本效益计算很有用。相对风险率可用于比较不同操作和不同工厂的危害。该方法可能使制定规定最大允许风险率的标准成为可能。
