Smith G C
Central Science Laboratory, York, UK.
Tuberculosis (Edinb). 2001;81(1-2):51-64. doi: 10.1054/tube.2000.0264.
Following the first model of wildlife tuberculosis (in European badgers) there has been a spate of papers modelling wildlife TB. These have looked at population parameters and disease dynamics in the badger and possum. Recent papers in particular have looked at various methods of controlling the wildlife vector to reduce the incidence of TB in cattle. The author examines the role of modelling to show what insights it has given us, which issues have not been addressed, and where the shortfalls lie. Particular attention will be paid to a comparison between models of badgers and possums, and between simple and more complex models, and possible areas of future research will be revealed.
继首个野生动物结核病模型(针对欧洲獾)出现后,涌现出大量关于野生动物结核病建模的论文。这些论文研究了獾和负鼠的种群参数及疾病动态。近期的论文尤其关注了控制野生动物传染源以降低牛群结核病发病率的各种方法。作者审视了建模所起的作用,以展示它给我们带来了哪些见解、哪些问题尚未得到解决以及不足之处何在。将特别关注獾和负鼠模型之间、简单模型和更复杂模型之间的比较,并揭示未来可能的研究领域。