Wildlife Programme, Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, York, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 Jul;141(7):1445-56. doi: 10.1017/S0950268813000721. Epub 2013 Mar 28.
We describe epidemiological trends in Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed wild badger (Meles meles) population. Data were derived from the capture, clinical sampling and serological testing of 1803 badgers over 9945 capture events spanning 24 years. Incidence and prevalence increased over time, exhibiting no simple relationship with host density. Potential explanations are presented for a marked increase in the frequency of positive serological test results. Transmission rates (R0) estimated from empirical data were consistent with modelled estimates and robust to changes in test sensitivity and the spatial extent of the population at risk. The risk of a positive culture or serological test result increased with badger age, and varied seasonally. Evidence consistent with progressive disease was found in cubs. This study demonstrates the value of long-term data and the repeated application of imperfect diagnostic tests as indices of infection to reveal epidemiological trends in M. bovis infection in badgers.
我们描述了未受干扰的野生獾（Meles meles）种群中牛分枝杆菌感染的流行病学趋势。数据来自于 24 年期间 9945 次捕获事件中对 1803 只獾的捕获、临床采样和血清学检测。发病率和患病率随时间增加，与宿主密度没有简单的关系。为阳性血清学检测结果频率的显著增加提出了一些潜在的解释。从经验数据估计的传播率（R0）与模型估计值一致，并且对检测灵敏度和受感染种群的空间范围的变化具有稳健性。阳性培养或血清学检测结果的风险随着獾的年龄增加而增加，并且具有季节性变化。在幼崽中发现了与进行性疾病一致的证据。本研究证明了长期数据和重复应用不完美的诊断测试作为感染指标的价值，可揭示獾中牛分枝杆菌感染的流行病学趋势。
