Rotmans J, van Asselt M B
International Centre for Integrative Studies, University of Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Environ Monit Assess. 2001 Jun;69(2):101-30. doi: 10.1023/a:1010722120729.
Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmas and challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed in Integrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paper finalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.
综合评估（IA）是一个不断发展的研究领域，旨在通过跨学科过程解决复杂的社会问题。综合评估中使用最广泛的方法是建模。本文从历史、一般特征、模型类别以及建模者面临的优势与劣势、困境与挑战等方面描述了综合评估建模的现状。关键挑战之一是不确定性管理问题。本文概述了建模者面临的不确定性来源和类型。然后讨论了综合评估建模中当前如何管理不确定性，并认为需要互补方法以实现多元不确定性管理。本文最后讨论了综合评估领域目前正在探索的多元概念和方法，鉴于在模型中明确纳入多个隐藏视角这一挑战，这些方法似乎很有前景。
