Martens W J
Maastricht University, Department of Mathematics, The Netherlands.
Environ Health Perspect. 1998 Feb;106 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):241-51. doi: 10.1289/ehp.98106s1241.
Anthropogenic climate changes and stratospheric ozone depletion affect human health in various ways. Current mainstream epidemiologic research methods do not appear well adapted to analyze these health impacts, which involve complex systems influenced by human interventions or simpler processes that will take place in the future. This paper discusses a different paradigm for studying the health impacts of global environmental changes and focuses on the development of integrated ecoepidemiologic models using three examples--the effect of climate change on vector-borne diseases, the effect of climate change on thermal-related mortality, and the effects of increasing ultraviolet levels because of ozone depletion on the rates of skin cancer.
人为气候变化和平流层臭氧消耗以多种方式影响人类健康。当前主流的流行病学研究方法似乎不太适合分析这些健康影响,因为这些影响涉及受人类干预影响的复杂系统或未来将会发生的较简单过程。本文讨论了一种研究全球环境变化对健康影响的不同范式,并通过三个例子重点介绍了综合生态流行病学模型的开发——气候变化对媒介传播疾病的影响、气候变化对与热相关死亡率的影响,以及臭氧消耗导致紫外线水平增加对皮肤癌发病率的影响。