Risk factors for the development of bladder transitional cell carcinoma following surgery for transitional cell carcinoma of the upper urinary tract.

To determine the risk factors for development of transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder (BTCC) following surgery for TCC of the upper urinary tract (UUT-TCC) in patients without history of BTCC, 85 patients surgically treated for UUT-TCC (34 female, 51 male; median age 66, range 42-85 years) were reviewed retrospectively. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association of relevant clinicopathologic factors with BTCC-free survival in patients without a history of BTCC and TCC-specific survival in all. Median follow-up duration was 35 (range 1-193) months. Six patients (7%) had previous histories of BTCC, and 6 others (7%) had concurrent BTCC at the time of surgery for UUT-TCC. Of 70 patients who had no history of BTCC and underwent follow-up cystoscopy, 24 (34%) developed BTCC during follow-up after surgery. Univariate analysis identified female sex, postoperative systemic chemotherapy, and incomplete distal ureterectomy as significant risk factors for new development of BTCC. After multivariate analysis adjusted for age and pathological (p) T stage in the TNM classification, all three factors remained significant, with respective hazard ratios of 5.56 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.99-15.6; p = 0.001), 3.19 (95% CI, 1.34-7.62; p = 0.009) and 2.99 (95% CI, 1.08-8.26; p = 0.03). Only pT stage was a significant independent risk factor for TCC-specific death. Female sex and postoperative systemic chemotherapy, as well as incomplete distal ureterectomy, are possible riks factors for development of BTCC following surgery for UUT-TCC.