Dobson A, Foufopoulos J
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1003, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2001 Jul 29;356(1411):1001-12. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2001.0900.
The first part of this paper surveys emerging pathogens of wildlife recorded on the ProMED Web site for a 2-year period between 1998 and 2000. The majority of pathogens recorded as causing disease outbreaks in wildlife were viral in origin. Anthropogenic activities caused the outbreaks in a significant majority of cases. The second part of the paper develops some matrix models for quantifying the basic reproductive number, R(0), for a variety of potential types of emergent pathogen that cause outbreaks in wildlife. These analyses emphasize the sensitivity of R(0) to heterogeneities created by either the spatial structure of the host population, or the ability of the pathogens to utilize multiple host species. At each stage we illustrate how the approach provides insight into the initial dynamics of emergent pathogens such as canine parvovirus, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus in the United States.
本文第一部分调查了1998年至2000年这两年间在ProMED网站上记录的野生动物新出现病原体。记录显示，在野生动物中引发疾病爆发的病原体大多数起源于病毒。在绝大多数情况下，人为活动导致了疫情爆发。本文第二部分开发了一些矩阵模型，用于量化各种可能在野生动物中引发疫情的新出现病原体的基本繁殖数R(0)。这些分析强调了R(0)对由宿主种群空间结构或病原体利用多种宿主物种的能力所造成的异质性的敏感性。在每个阶段，我们都举例说明了该方法如何深入了解美国诸如犬细小病毒、莱姆病和西尼罗河病毒等新出现病原体的初始动态。
