Hopkins W G, Hewson D J
Department of Physiology and School of Physical Education, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2001 Sep;33(9):1588-92. doi: 10.1097/00005768-200109000-00023.
The typical variation in an athlete's performance from race to race sets a benchmark for assessing the utility of performance tests and the magnitude of factors affecting medal prospects. We report here the typical variation in competitive performance of endurance runners.
Repeated-measures analysis of log-transformed official race times provided the typical within-athlete variation in performance as coefficients of variation (CV). The types of race were cross-country runs (4 races over 9 wk), summer road runs (5 races over 4 wk), winter road runs (4 races over 9 wk), half marathons (3 races over 13 wk and 2 races over 22 wk), and marathons (2 races over 22 wk).
Typical variation of times for the fastest quartile of male runners was 1.2-1.9% in the cross-country and road runs, 2.7% and 4.2% in half marathons, and 2.6% in marathons. Times for the slower half of runners in most events were more variable than those of the faster half (ratio of slower/faster CV, 1.0-2.3). Times of younger adult runners were more variable than times of older runners (ratio of younger/older CV, 1.1-1.8). Times of male runners were generally more variable than those of female runners (ratio of male/female CV, 0.9-1.7).
Tests of endurance power suitable for assessing the smallest worthwhile changes in running performance for top runners need CV < or = 2.5% and < or = 1.5% for tests simulating half or full marathons and shorter running races, respectively. Most of the differences in variability of race times between types of race, ability groups, age groups, and sexes probably arise from differences in competitive experience and attitude toward competing.
运动员在不同比赛中的表现存在典型差异，这为评估成绩测试的效用以及影响奖牌前景的因素大小提供了一个基准。我们在此报告耐力跑运动员比赛成绩的典型差异。
对经对数转换的官方比赛时间进行重复测量分析，得出运动员成绩的典型个体内差异，以变异系数（CV）表示。比赛类型包括越野跑（9周内4场比赛）、夏季公路跑（4周内5场比赛）、冬季公路跑（9周内4场比赛）、半程马拉松（13周内3场比赛和22周内2场比赛）以及马拉松（22周内2场比赛）。
男性跑步者中最快四分位数的比赛时间典型差异在越野跑和公路跑中为1.2 - 1.9%，在半程马拉松中为2.7%和4.2%，在马拉松中为2.6%。在大多数项目中，速度较慢的一半跑步者的时间比速度较快的一半更具变异性（较慢/较快CV比值为1.0 - 2.3）。年轻成年跑步者的时间比年长跑步者更具变异性（年轻/年长CV比值为1.1 - 1.8）。男性跑步者的时间通常比女性跑步者更具变异性（男性/女性CV比值为0.9 - 1.7）。
对于顶级跑步者，适合评估跑步成绩最小有价值变化的耐力测试，模拟半程或全程马拉松及更短跑步比赛的测试，CV分别需≤2.5%和≤1.5%。不同比赛类型、能力组、年龄组和性别之间比赛时间变异性的大多数差异可能源于比赛经验和竞争态度的不同。
