Raup D M
Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.
Paleobiology. 1991;17(1):37-48. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300010332.
A kill curve for Phanerozoic species is developed from an analysis of the stratigraphic ranges of 17,621 genera, as compiled by Sepkoski. The kill curve shows that a typical species' risk of extinction varies greatly, with most time intervals being characterized by very low risk. The mean extinction rate of 0.25/m.y. is thus a mixture of long periods of negligible extinction and occasional pulses of much higher rate. Because the kill curve is merely a description of the fossil record, it does not speak directly to the causes of extinction. The kill curve may be useful, however, to li¿mit choices of extinction mechanisms.
通过对Sepkoski汇编的17621个属的地层范围进行分析，得出了显生宙物种的灭绝曲线。该灭绝曲线表明，一个典型物种的灭绝风险差异很大，大多数时间间隔的特征是风险极低。因此，平均灭绝率为每百万年0.25次，是长期可忽略不计的灭绝期与偶尔出现的高得多的灭绝率脉冲的混合。由于灭绝曲线仅仅是对化石记录的描述，它并没有直接说明灭绝的原因。然而，灭绝曲线可能有助于限制对灭绝机制的选择。
