Martin S W, Schwabe C W, Franti C E
Am J Vet Res. 1975 Aug;36(08):1099-104.
Sixteen dairy farm owners in Tulare County, California, provided data on heifer calf births and deaths. Eleven of these dairymen had maintained records on the calves before this study was done, and 5 agreed to maintain them for 6 months. Basic statistical techniques, including time series analyses and life-table methods, were used to examine the data for temporal and demographic characteristics. Overall, the calf mortality rate on the 16 farms averaged 17.3 to 20.2%. The interfarm variation in mortality rate was large, ranging from 3.7 to 32.1%. Time series studies indicated that the extent of death losses increased during midsummer (June, July, August) and midwinter (November, December, January), with mortality rates in winter months being 20% greater than those in summer. Death losses in October and March were highly variable; however, losses in October usually exceeded the yearly average; those in March did not. Also, 80% of the dairymen recorded the same relative change in mortality rate during each of 2 consecutive winters and 2 consecutive summers. The risk of death for calves was greatest in their 1st week of life on most of the farms; of all deaths in calves less than 5 weeks old, 55% occurred during the 1st week of life, and 27% occurred during the 2nd. In general, the death loss in calves between 5 weeks and 3 months old was less than 2%.
加利福尼亚州图莱里县的16位奶牛场主提供了有关小母牛犊出生和死亡的数据。在这项研究开展之前,其中11位奶农就已保存了犊牛的记录,还有5位同意在6个月内持续记录。研究运用了包括时间序列分析和生命表方法在内的基本统计技术,来检验数据的时间和人口统计学特征。总体而言,这16个农场的犊牛死亡率平均为17.3%至20.2%。农场间的死亡率差异很大,范围在3.7%至32.1%之间。时间序列研究表明,仲夏(6月、7月、8月)和仲冬(11月、12月、1月)期间死亡损失的程度有所增加,冬季月份的死亡率比夏季高20%。10月和3月的死亡损失变化很大;不过,10月的损失通常超过年平均水平,3月则没有。此外,80%的奶农记录了在连续两个冬季和连续两个夏季中每个季节死亡率的相同相对变化。在大多数农场,犊牛出生后第一周的死亡风险最高;在5周龄以下犊牛的所有死亡中,55%发生在出生后的第一周,27%发生在第二周。一般来说,5周龄至3月龄犊牛的死亡损失不到2%。