Civilian health during WWI and the causes of German defeat: a reexamination of the winter hypothesis.

This paper is a reexamination of the Winter hypothesis, which holds that there was a marked difference in the development of civilian health during the First World War between the central powers and the Western allies. Ultimate success on the battlefield, according to Winter, required balancing the needs of the military with civilian demands; Germany lost because it failed to achieve such a balance. The resulting decline in health standards undermined the war effort and eventually led to defeat. This article proceeds in two steps. First, it demonstrates that Winter's data does not allow him to make a proper comparison between the two camps. Second, I argue that his hypothesis can be refuted once a truly comparable source is used--infant mortality rated. There is as yet no convincing evidence to suggest that the outcome of the First world War was determined by public health policy.