Retherford R D, Ogawa N, Sakamoto S
Program on Population, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.
Popul Stud (Camb). 1996 Mar;50(1):5-25. doi: 10.1080/0032472031000149016.
This paper analyses how value change and economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, and especially since 1973 when fertility resumed declining after some 15 years at near-replacement level. The resumption of fertility decline since 1973 has been driven primarily by underlying economic and social changes. Value change has tended to lag behind fertility change, and this lag has tended to be larger in Japan than in other advanced nations, primarily because underlying economic and social conditions have evolved more rapidly in Japan, and because it takes time for values to adjust to changes in underlying conditions. Because of Japan's high degree of cultural homogeneity, values tend to be widely and quickly shared, so that under certain conditions value change tends to occur in spurts. In Japan, many of the more important value changes affecting fertility in recent decades are bound up with major educational and job gains by women, which have led to greater economic independence and more emphasis on values of individualism and equality between the sexes.
本文分析了自1950年以来,特别是自1973年以来价值观念的变化以及经济和社会变革如何共同影响日本的生育率。1973年前后,日本的生育率在维持了约15年的接近更替水平后再度下降。1973年以来生育率的再度下降主要是由潜在的经济和社会变革推动的。价值观念的变化往往滞后于生育率的变化,而且这种滞后在日本比在其他发达国家更为明显,这主要是因为日本潜在的经济和社会状况变化更为迅速,也因为价值观念需要时间来适应潜在状况的变化。由于日本文化高度同质化,价值观念往往能广泛且迅速地传播,因此在某些情况下,价值观念的变化往往会突然发生。在日本,近几十年来许多影响生育率的更为重要的价值观念变化与女性在教育和就业方面的重大进展密切相关,这些进展带来了更大的经济独立性,也更加注重个人主义和性别平等的价值观。