Robinson W C
Popul Stud (Camb). 1997 Mar;51(1):63-74. doi: 10.1080/0032472031000149736.
After a promising start some three decades ago, the application of micro-economic analysis to fertility studies has proved disappointing. It has not led to an increased understanding of fertility decisions nor to the policy insights which had been expected. This paper considers the reasons for this disappointment. It reviews briefly the development of the now dominant version of the economic approach to fertility analysis, the so-called "Chicago Model". It concludes that several basic conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of this approach have led it up a blind alley. The paper concludes with suggestions for new assumptions and approaches which may make the theory more relevant for policy programmes.
大约三十年前有一个充满希望的开端之后，微观经济分析在生育研究中的应用已被证明令人失望。它既没有增进对生育决策的理解，也没有带来预期的政策见解。本文探讨了导致这种失望的原因。它简要回顾了目前占主导地位的生育分析经济方法版本，即所谓的“芝加哥模型”的发展。结论是，这种方法的几个基本概念和理论弱点使其走入了死胡同。本文最后提出了一些新的假设和方法建议，这些可能会使该理论与政策方案更相关。
