Rollet C
Université de Versailles St. Quentin-en-Yvelines, Guyancourt.
Ann Demogr Hist (Paris). 1994:7-22.
The purpose of the article is to give a short synthesis of the communications gathered in this volume dedicated to the topic of child mortality. It starts with the evocation of some key issues about sources and methods: the study of mortality before 5 years appears more difficult than expected. The trend of the decrease, more and more clear, though unlinear, suggests that climate, beyond environmental and socio-economic factors, may have been an underestimated factor so far. The analysis of causes refers to the concept of synergy, several factors acting simultaneously to reinforce the previous trends, either of decrease or increase of death risks.
本文的目的是对本卷中收集的关于儿童死亡率这一主题的交流内容进行简要综述。文章开篇提及了一些关于数据来源和方法的关键问题:对5岁前死亡率的研究似乎比预期更为困难。死亡率下降的趋势愈发明显,尽管并非呈线性,这表明除了环境和社会经济因素外,气候因素可能迄今为止一直被低估。对死因的分析涉及协同作用的概念,即几个因素同时起作用,强化了此前死亡风险下降或上升的趋势。