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[法语区欧洲的儿童死亡率:现状]

[Child mortality in francophone Europe: the state of the matter].

作者信息

Perrenoud A

机构信息

Département d'Histoire Economique, Université de Genève.

出版信息

Ann Demogr Hist (Paris). 1994:79-96.

Abstract

The interest of a comparative approach at a supranational level is to identify and to underscore the trends that sometimes overcome regional characteristics. Therefore among the great variety of parameters likely to influence mortality, the factors acting on levels and the factors acting on trends must be strictly distinguished. What is more striking where comparisons are possible, is the conformity of trends and the fact that evolution is not continuous but moves forward in stages. This is the reason why socio-economic explanations must be excluded. A whole part of Western Europe knew an important decline of infants' mortality at the turn of the XIXth and XXth centuries and probably also of the XVIIIth century. It was such a rapid, simultaneous extensive decline that the interference of very general factors must be acknowledged. Then the question is raised of the effect that a modification in the pathological balance can produce on the chances of infants to survive. The hypothesis considered here is a minor incidence of infectious diseases connected to changing bio-meteorological conditions (a drop in the temperature gap between winter and summer) which would have acted as a transforming mass along with cumulatiave effects because of the interactive synergy between ill-nourishment and infections. The evolution in the XIXth century and the contrasted profiles or mortality according to age confirm the hypothesis of a modification in the nosological context unrelated to the economic conditions.

摘要

在超国家层面采用比较方法的意义在于识别并突出那些有时超越区域特征的趋势。因此,在众多可能影响死亡率的参数中,必须严格区分作用于死亡率水平的因素和作用于死亡率趋势的因素。在能够进行比较的情况下,更引人注目的是趋势的一致性以及死亡率并非持续演变而是分阶段推进这一事实。这就是必须排除社会经济解释的原因。在19世纪与20世纪之交,或许还有18世纪,西欧的很大一部分地区婴儿死亡率都出现了显著下降。这是一次如此迅速、同时且广泛的下降,以至于必须承认存在非常普遍的因素在起作用。接着就产生了这样一个问题:病理平衡的改变会对婴儿的生存几率产生何种影响。这里所考虑的假设是,与生物气象条件变化(冬夏温差减小)相关的传染病发病率降低,这种变化与营养不良和感染之间的相互协同作用共同产生累积效应,从而起到了改变作用。19世纪的演变以及按年龄划分的死亡率对比情况证实了疾病分类背景发生改变这一假设,且这种改变与经济状况无关。

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