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与电离辐射相关的风险:一种替代的流行病学方法。

The risk linked to ionizing radiation: an alternative epidemiologic approach.

作者信息

de Brouwer C, Lagasse R

机构信息

Laboratoire de Santé au Travail et de Toxicologie du Milieu, School of Public Health, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium.

出版信息

Environ Health Perspect. 2001 Sep;109(9):877-80. doi: 10.1289/ehp.01109877.

Abstract

Radioprotection norms have been based on risk models that have evolved over time. These models show relationships between exposure and observed effects. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding lower doses. Recommendations have been based on the conservative hypothesis of a linear relationship without threshold value. This relationship is still debated, and the diverse observations do not allow any definitive conclusion. Available data are contradictory, and various interpretations can be made. Here we review an alternative approach for defining causation and reconciling apparently contradictory conclusions. This alternative epidemiologic approach is based on causal groups: Each component of a causal group is necessary but not sufficient for causality. Many groups may be involved in causality. Thus, ionizing radiation may be a component of one or several causal groups. This formalization reconciles heterogeneous observations but implies searching for the interactions between components, mostly between critical components of a causal profile, and, for instance, the reasons why specific human groups would not show any effect despite exposure, when an effect would be expected.

摘要

辐射防护规范一直基于随时间演变的风险模型。这些模型显示了暴露与观察到的效应之间的关系。对于较低剂量,存在高度的不确定性。建议基于无阈值的线性关系这一保守假设。这种关系仍存在争议,各种观察结果无法得出任何明确结论。现有数据相互矛盾,可以有多种解释。在此,我们回顾一种用于定义因果关系并调和明显矛盾结论的替代方法。这种替代的流行病学方法基于因果组:因果组的每个组成部分对于因果关系都是必要的,但不是充分的。许多组可能与因果关系有关。因此,电离辐射可能是一个或几个因果组的组成部分。这种形式化调和了异质的观察结果,但意味着要寻找各组成部分之间的相互作用,主要是因果概况关键组成部分之间的相互作用,例如,当预期会有某种效应时,特定人群尽管受到暴露却未显示任何效应的原因。

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