Loneragan G H, Dargatz D A, Morley P S, Smith M A
Department of Clinical Science, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Ft Collins 80523, USA.
J Am Vet Med Assoc. 2001 Oct 15;219(8):1122-7. doi: 10.2460/javma.2001.219.1122.
To evaluate trends in feedlot cattle mortality ratios over time, by primary body system affected, and by type of animal.
Retrospective cohort study.
Approximately 21.8 million cattle entering 121 feedlots in the United States during 1994 through 1999.
Yearly and monthly mortality ratios were calculated. Numbers of deaths were modeled by use of Poisson regression methods for repeated measures. Relative risks of death over time and by animal type were estimated.
Averaged over time, the mortality ratio was 12.6 deaths/1,000 cattle entering the feedlots. The mortality ratio increased from 10.3 deaths/1,000 cattle in 1994 to 14.2 deaths/1,000 cattle in 1999, but this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.09). Cattle entering the feedlots during 1999 had a significantly increased risk (relative risk, 1.46) of dying of respiratory tract disorders, compared with cattle that entered during 1994, and respiratory tract disorders accounted for 57.1% of all deaths. Dairy cattle had a significantly increased risk of death of any cause, compared with beef steers. Beef heifers had a significantly increased risk of dying of respiratory tract disorders, compared with beef steers.
Results suggested that although overall yearly mortality ratio did not significantly increase during the study, the risk of death attributable to respiratory tract disorders was increased during most years, compared with risk of death during 1994. The increased rates of fatal respiratory tract disorders may also reflect increased rates of non-fatal respiratory tract disorders, which would be expected to have adverse production effects in surviving animals.
按受影响的主要身体系统以及动物类型,评估饲养场肉牛随时间推移的死亡率趋势。
回顾性队列研究。
1994年至1999年期间进入美国121个饲养场的约2180万头肉牛。
计算年度和月度死亡率。使用泊松回归方法对重复测量的死亡数量进行建模。估计随时间推移以及按动物类型划分的死亡相对风险。
随时间平均计算,死亡率为每1000头进入饲养场的肉牛中有12.6头死亡。死亡率从1994年的每1000头肉牛中有10.3头死亡增加到1999年的每1000头肉牛中有14.2头死亡,但这种差异无统计学意义(P = 0.09)。与1994年进入饲养场的肉牛相比,1999年进入饲养场的肉牛死于呼吸道疾病的风险显著增加(相对风险,1.46),且呼吸道疾病占所有死亡的57.1%。与肉用公牛相比,奶牛任何原因导致的死亡风险显著增加。与肉用公牛相比,肉用小母牛死于呼吸道疾病的风险显著增加。
结果表明,尽管在研究期间总体年度死亡率未显著增加,但与1994年的死亡风险相比,大多数年份因呼吸道疾病导致的死亡风险有所增加。致命呼吸道疾病发生率的增加也可能反映非致命呼吸道疾病发生率的增加,这预计会对存活动物的生产产生不利影响。