Stevens R J, Kothari V, Adler A I, Stratton I M
Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, UK.
Clin Sci (Lond). 2001 Dec;101(6):671-9.
A definitive model for predicting absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in male and female people with Type II diabetes is not yet available. This paper provides an equation for estimating the risk of new CHD events in people with Type II diabetes, based on data from 4540 U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study male and female patients. Unlike previously published risk equations, the model is diabetes-specific and incorporates glycaemia, systolic blood pressure and lipid levels as risk factors, in addition to age, sex, ethnic group, smoking status and time since diagnosis of diabetes. All variables included in the final model were statistically significant (P<0.001, except smoking for which P=0.0013) in likelihood ratio testing. This model provides the estimates of CHD risk required by current guidelines for the primary prevention of CHD in Type II diabetes.
目前尚未有用于预测 II 型糖尿病男性和女性患冠心病（CHD）绝对风险的确定性模型。本文基于来自 4540 名英国前瞻性糖尿病研究的男性和女性患者的数据，提供了一个用于估计 II 型糖尿病患者发生新的 CHD 事件风险的方程。与先前发表的风险方程不同，该模型是针对糖尿病的，除了年龄、性别、种族、吸烟状况和糖尿病诊断后的时间外，还将血糖、收缩压和血脂水平纳入为风险因素。最终模型中包含的所有变量在似然比检验中均具有统计学意义（P<0.001，吸烟除外，其 P = 0.0013）。该模型提供了当前 II 型糖尿病 CHD 一级预防指南所需的 CHD 风险估计值。
