Diehr P, Patrick D L
Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle 98195-7232, USA.
Qual Life Res. 2001;10(5):431-42. doi: 10.1023/a:1012566130639.
To estimate the probabilities of transition among self-rated health states for older adults, and examine how they vary by age and sex.
We used self-rated health (excellent, very good, good, fair, poor, dead) collected in two longitudinal studies of older adults (mean age 75) to estimate the probability of transition in 2 years. We used the estimates to project future health for selected cohorts.
These older adults were most likely to be in the same health state 2 years later, but a substantial proportion changed in both directions. Transition probabilities varied by initial health state, age and sex. Men were more likely than women to transition to excellent or dead. Women were more likely than men to transition to good or fair health. Although women aged 70 will have more years of life and more years of healthy life than men, they also have more years of unhealthy life, and the proportion of remaining life that is healthy is slightly higher for men. When observed and predicted years of healthy life (YHL) were compared in various subgroups, the YHL of persons with less favorable baseline characteristics was lower than predicted, and vice-versa. Differences, however, were small (about 5%).
These transition probability estimates can be used to predict the future health of individuals or groups as a function of current age, sex, and self-rated health.
估计老年人自评健康状态之间转变的概率，并研究这些概率如何随年龄和性别而变化。
我们使用在两项针对老年人（平均年龄75岁）的纵向研究中收集的自评健康状况（优秀、非常好、良好、一般、差、死亡）来估计两年内转变的概率。我们用这些估计值来预测特定队列未来的健康状况。
这些老年人在两年后最有可能处于相同的健康状态，但相当一部分人在两个方向上都发生了变化。转变概率因初始健康状态、年龄和性别而异。男性比女性更有可能转变为优秀或死亡状态。女性比男性更有可能转变为良好或一般健康状态。尽管70岁的女性比男性有更多的寿命年数和更多的健康寿命年数，但她们也有更多的非健康寿命年数，并且男性剩余寿命中健康的比例略高。当在不同亚组中比较观察到的和预测的健康寿命年数（YHL）时，基线特征较差的人的YHL低于预测值，反之亦然。然而，差异很小（约5%）。
这些转变概率估计值可用于根据当前年龄、性别和自评健康状况预测个体或群体未来的健康状况。
