Jelínková J, Branis M
Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.
Int Arch Occup Environ Health. 2001 Oct;74(8):565-73. doi: 10.1007/s004200100260.
Severe air pollution episodes were recorded during the 1980s and early 1990s in the Czech Republic as a result of widespread combustion of brown coal. A population-based retrospective study investigated the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in six highly polluted areas of the Czech Republic during smog episodes in 1982, 1985, 1987, and 1993.
Total daily mortality, mortality by gender and age, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, data on weekly incidence of acute respiratory diseases and daily mean concentrations of sulphur dioxide and suspended particulate matter were used in the model. The effects of smog on daily mortality were estimated by multiple linear regression analysis.
Significant increases in mortality were observed for the 1982 and 1987 episodes (6% and 9%). In 1982, mortality was significantly associated with mean concentration of sulphur dioxide (SO2) of the current and the preceding days and with the 4-day moving average. In the 1985 episode a significant increase in respiratory mortality in men and in both genders together, lagging by 2 and 3 days, was detected. During the 1987 episode significant associations of total daily mortality, mortality in persons over 65 years of age and mortality from cardiovascular or respiratory diseases with 4-day moving average of both pollutants were found. For the 1993 episode a significant association between mortality in women under 65, lagging by 3 days, and mean concentration of suspended particulate matter (SPM) was observed.
Most of the results are consistent with other studies aimed at episodic air pollution during the 1950s and 1960s in Western Europe and the USA, in which outdoor air pollution was shown to be a significant predictor of mortality. However, non-significant or opposite associations between air pollution and mortality indicate that other factors may also play an important role. A stronger effect on men under 65 years of age, suggested by a previous Czech study was not confirmed.
20世纪80年代和90年代初，由于褐煤的广泛燃烧，捷克共和国记录到了严重的空气污染事件。一项基于人群的回顾性研究调查了1982年、1985年、1987年和1993年烟雾事件期间，捷克共和国六个高污染地区空气污染与每日死亡率之间的关系。
模型中使用了每日总死亡率、按性别和年龄划分的死亡率、心血管疾病死亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率、急性呼吸道疾病每周发病率数据以及二氧化硫和悬浮颗粒物的每日平均浓度。通过多元线性回归分析估计烟雾对每日死亡率的影响。
1982年和1987年的事件中死亡率显著增加（分别为6%和9%）。1982年，死亡率与当日和前一日的二氧化硫（SO2）平均浓度以及4天移动平均值显著相关。在1985年的事件中，男性以及男女合计的呼吸系统死亡率在滞后2天和3天时显著增加。在1987年的事件中，发现每日总死亡率、65岁以上人群的死亡率以及心血管或呼吸系统疾病导致的死亡率与两种污染物的4天移动平均值之间存在显著关联。对于1993年的事件，观察到65岁以下女性的死亡率在滞后3天时与悬浮颗粒物（SPM）平均浓度之间存在显著关联。
大多数结果与其他针对20世纪50年代和60年代西欧和美国的间歇性空气污染的研究一致，这些研究表明室外空气污染是死亡率的重要预测指标。然而，空气污染与死亡率之间不显著或相反的关联表明其他因素可能也起着重要作用。捷克之前的一项研究表明对65岁以下男性有更强的影响，但未得到证实。
