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[生物圈在地球气候形成中的作用。一场温室灾难]

[The role of biosphere in the formation of the Earth climate. A greenhouse catastrophe].

作者信息

Karnaukhov A V

机构信息

Institute of Cell Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region, 142290 Russia.

出版信息

Biofizika. 2001 Nov-Dec;46(6):1138-49.

Abstract

The role of processes in organic and inorganic nature that determine the formation of the atmosphere chemical composition and Earth temperature balance was analyzed. It was concluded that the biological mechanisms of CO2 removal from the atmosphere are insufficient, and there exist potentially hazardous CO2 sources in inorganic nature that can be activated upon elevation of the mean Earth temperature. It was shown that the stability of natural systems of maintaining the constant chemical composition of the atmosphere is destroyed due to the disturbance by man of climate-forming biocenoses, which may lead to irreversible changes in Earth's climate with the result that the mean planetary temperature would be elevated to 100-150 degrees C and above. This would make impossible the existence of life on our planet, at least in its present form. A radiation-adiabatic model of the greenhouse effect was constructed in the framework of which asymptotic estimates of the increase in mean planet temperatures for a wide range of changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases were obtained. On the basis of the model, an integral model of changes in Earth's climate was constructed, which takes into account the heat inertia of the ocean and aerosol contaminations of the upper layers of the atmosphere. It was shown that irreversible (catastrophic) changes in Earth's climate (greenhouse catastrophe) may occur in a relatively near future (200-300 years).

摘要

分析了有机和无机自然界中决定大气化学成分形成和地球温度平衡的过程的作用。得出的结论是,从大气中去除二氧化碳的生物机制是不够的,无机自然界中存在潜在危险的二氧化碳源,当地球平均温度升高时可能被激活。结果表明,由于人类对形成气候的生物群落的干扰,维持大气化学成分恒定的自然系统的稳定性被破坏,这可能导致地球气候的不可逆转变化,结果是行星平均温度将升高到100-150摄氏度及以上。这将使我们星球上的生命无法存在,至少以其目前的形式无法存在。构建了一个温室效应的辐射绝热模型,在该模型框架内,获得了温室气体浓度广泛变化情况下行星平均温度升高的渐近估计。在此模型基础上,构建了一个考虑海洋热惯性和大气上层气溶胶污染的地球气候变化积分模型。结果表明,地球气候的不可逆转(灾难性)变化(温室灾难)可能在相对较近的未来(200-300年)发生。

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