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到达地球表面的生物活性紫外线辐射的变化。

Changes in biologically-active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface.

作者信息

McKenzie R L, Aucamp P J, Bais A F, Björn L O, Ilyas M

机构信息

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA Lauder, PB 50061, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand.

出版信息

Photochem Photobiol Sci. 2007 Mar;6(3):218-31. doi: 10.1039/b700017k. Epub 2007 Feb 15.

Abstract

The Montreal Protocol is working. Concentrations of major ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are now decreasing, and the decline in total column amounts seen in the 1980s and 1990s at mid-latitudes has not continued. In polar regions, there is much greater natural variability. Each spring, large ozone holes continue to occur in Antarctica and less severe regions of depleted ozone continue to occur in the Arctic. There is evidence that some of these changes are driven by changes in atmospheric circulation rather than being solely attributable to reductions in ozone-depleting substances, which may indicate a linkage to climate change. Global ozone is still lower than in the 1970s and a return to that state is not expected for several decades. As changes in ozone impinge directly on UV radiation, elevated UV radiation due to reduced ozone is expected to continue over that period. Long-term changes in UV-B due to ozone depletion are difficult to verify through direct measurement, but there is strong evidence that UV-B irradiance increased over the period of ozone depletion. At unpolluted sites in the southern hemisphere, there is some evidence that UV-B irradiance has diminished since the late 1990s. The availability and temporal extent of UV data have improved, and we are now able to evaluate the changes in recent times compared with those estimated since the late 1920s, when ozone measurements first became available. The increases in UV-B irradiance over the latter part of the 20th century have been larger than the natural variability. There is increased evidence that aerosols have a larger effect on surface UV-B radiation than previously thought. At some sites in the Northern Hemisphere, UV-B irradiance may continue to increase because of continuing reductions in aerosol extinctions since the 1990s. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are complex and can be mediated through changes in chemistry, radiation, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The changes can be in both directions: ozone changes can affect climate, and climate change can affect ozone. The observational evidence suggests that stratospheric ozone (and therefore UV-B) has responded relatively quickly to changes in ozone-depleting substances, implying that climate interactions have not delayed this process. Model calculations predict that at mid-latitudes a return of ozone to pre-1980 levels is expected by the mid 21st century. However, it may take a decade or two longer in polar regions. Climate change can also affect UV radiation through changes in cloudiness and albedo, without involving ozone and since temperature changes over the 21st century are likely to be about 5 times greater than in the past century. This is likely to have significant effects on future cloud, aerosol and surface reflectivity. Consequently, unless strong mitigation measures are undertaken with respect to climate change, profound effects on the biosphere and on the solar UV radiation received at the Earth's surface can be anticipated. The future remains uncertain. Ozone is expected to increase slowly over the decades ahead, but it is not known whether ozone will return to higher levels, or lower levels, than those present prior to the onset of ozone depletion in the 1970s. There is even greater uncertainty about future UV radiation, since it will be additionally influenced by changes in aerosols and clouds.

摘要

《蒙特利尔议定书》正在发挥作用。大气中主要消耗臭氧层物质的浓度目前正在下降,20世纪80年代和90年代在中纬度地区观测到的总柱量下降趋势已不再持续。在极地地区,自然变化性更大。每年春季,南极上空仍会出现大面积臭氧空洞,北极地区则会持续出现臭氧损耗程度较轻的区域。有证据表明,其中一些变化是由大气环流变化驱动的,而不仅仅是由于消耗臭氧层物质的减少,这可能意味着与气候变化存在联系。全球臭氧水平仍低于20世纪70年代,预计几十年内都不会恢复到那时的水平。由于臭氧变化直接影响紫外线辐射,预计在此期间,因臭氧减少导致的紫外线辐射增强仍将持续。由于臭氧消耗导致的UV - B长期变化难以通过直接测量来验证,但有强有力的证据表明,在臭氧消耗期间UV - B辐照度有所增加。在南半球未受污染的地区,有证据表明自20世纪90年代末以来UV - B辐照度有所下降。紫外线数据的可用性和时间跨度都有所改善,现在我们能够评估近期的变化,并与自20世纪20年代末首次有臭氧测量数据以来的估计变化进行比较。20世纪后半叶UV - B辐照度的增加幅度超过了自然变化范围。越来越多的证据表明,气溶胶对地表UV - B辐射的影响比之前认为的更大。在北半球的一些地点,由于自20世纪90年代以来气溶胶消光持续减少,UV - B辐照度可能会继续增加。臭氧消耗与气候变化之间的相互作用很复杂,可通过化学、辐射和大气环流模式的变化来介导。这些变化可能是双向的:臭氧变化会影响气候,气候变化也会影响臭氧。观测证据表明,平流层臭氧(进而UV - B)对消耗臭氧层物质的变化反应相对较快,这意味着气候相互作用并未延迟这一过程。模型计算预测,在中纬度地区,预计到21世纪中叶臭氧将恢复到1980年前的水平。然而,极地地区可能需要再过一二十年。气候变化还可通过云量和反照率的变化影响紫外线辐射,而不涉及臭氧,并且由于21世纪的温度变化可能比过去一个世纪大约大5倍。这可能会对未来的云、气溶胶和地表反射率产生重大影响。因此,除非针对气候变化采取强有力的缓解措施,可以预见将会对生物圈以及地球表面接收到的太阳紫外线辐射产生深远影响。未来仍不确定。预计未来几十年臭氧将缓慢增加,但不知道臭氧是否会恢复到高于或低于20世纪70年代臭氧消耗开始前的水平。关于未来紫外线辐射的不确定性更大,因为它还将受到气溶胶和云变化的额外影响。

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