[A preliminary study on dental-manpower forecasting model of Miyun County in Beijing].

OBJECTIVE

To explore the dental-manpower forecasting model of Chinese rural region and provide references for Chinese dental-manpower researches.

METHODS

Chose rural Miyun County in Beijing as a sample, according to the need-based and demand-weighted forecasting method, a protocol WHO-CH model and corresponding JWG-6-M package developed by authors were used to calculate the present and future need and demand of dental-manpower in Miyun County. Further predications were also calculated on the effects of four modeling parameters to the demand of dental manpower.

RESULTS

The present need and demand of oral care personnel for Miyun were 114.5 and 29.1 respectively. At present, Miyun has 43 oral care providers who can satisfy the demand but not the need. The change of oral health demand had a major effect on the forecast of the manpower.

CONCLUSION

Dental-manpower planning should consider the need as a prime factor but must be modified by the demand. It was suggested that corresponding factors of oral care personnel need to be discussed further.