泰国的艾滋病与老年人：预测家庭影响。
AIDS and the elderly of Thailand: projecting familial impacts.
作者信息
Wachter Kenneth W, Knodel John E, Vanlandingham Mark
机构信息
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720-2120, USA.
出版信息
Demography. 2002 Feb;39(1):25-41. doi: 10.1353/dem.2002.0012.
We apply aggregate demographic analysis and computer microsimulation to project the number of older Thais who will lose children to AIDS during their own lifetimes and to assess their involvement with ill children through caregiving and coresidence. Parental bereavements from AIDS are predicted to peak at around 80,000 per year between 2003 and 2007. Despite an HIV prevalence of only 2%, 13% of Thais who were over age 50 as of 1995 are likely to experience the loss of at least one adult child to AIDS, and 12% of them will lose multiple children. The chance of losing an adult child during one's lifetime will be 70% higher than if there were no AIDS epidemic.
我们运用总体人口分析和计算机微观模拟，来预测在泰国老年人有生之年因艾滋病失去子女的人数，并通过照料和共同居住情况评估他们与患病子女的关联。预计2003年至2007年期间，每年因艾滋病导致的父母丧子数量将达到约8万人的峰值。尽管泰国的艾滋病毒感染率仅为2%，但截至1995年50岁以上的泰国人中有13%可能会因艾滋病失去至少一个成年子女，其中12%会失去多个子女。与没有艾滋病疫情的情况相比，在一个人有生之年失去成年子女的几率将高出70%。
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