Yu T, Xse L, Wong T, Huang X, Chen W
Department of Community and Family Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 1999 Jul;33(4):224-7.
To describe the time trend of mortality rates of cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Hong Kong for the period of 1976 to 1995, and to compare them with those in the more developed countries around the world.
Mortality rates of CVD were standardized directly using world standard population in 1961. Annual percent changes of mortality rates of CVD were estimated with a non-linear regression. Birth-cohort analysis was carried out at an interval of five-year of age to compare their age-specific mortality rates of CVD in different birth cohorts. Time trend of cause-specific mortality rates of CVD both in males and females was fitted with a simple linear regression model.
Considerable downward trend of CVD mortality was observed during the past twenty years. Mortality rates among men and women decreased by 50.96% and 37.85% in 1995, as compared to those in 1976, respectively. Although in general, a greater trend in CVD mortality was observed during the last 10 years, as compared with that in the previous 10 years, an annual increase in CVD mortality of 1.34% was found among males aged 35 to 44 years during the latter 10 years. CVD mortality for both males and females decreased steadily by 1% per year. CVD mortality for females will catch up with that for males by the year of 2013, if such a trend continues. Birth-cohort analysis showed that those born more recently at the same age-group had lower mortality of CVD (except for those born after 1955). Data from hospital admission showed that improvement in the treatment for CVD could have contributed partly to the decrease in its mortality.
Time trend of mortality of CVD in Hong Kong was similar to that in many other economically developed areas around the world.
描述1976年至1995年香港脑血管疾病（CVD）死亡率的时间趋势，并将其与世界上较发达国家的死亡率进行比较。
使用1961年的世界标准人口直接对CVD死亡率进行标准化。用非线性回归估计CVD死亡率的年度百分比变化。按五岁间隔进行出生队列分析，以比较不同出生队列中特定年龄的CVD死亡率。用简单线性回归模型拟合男性和女性CVD死因特异性死亡率的时间趋势。
在过去二十年中观察到CVD死亡率有相当大的下降趋势。与1976年相比，1995年男性和女性的死亡率分别下降了50.96%和37.85%。尽管总体而言，与前十年相比，过去十年中CVD死亡率的下降趋势更大，但在后十年中，35至44岁男性的CVD死亡率每年增长1.34%。男性和女性的CVD死亡率每年稳步下降1%。如果这种趋势持续下去，到2013年女性的CVD死亡率将赶上男性。出生队列分析表明，在同一年龄组中较晚出生的人CVD死亡率较低（1955年以后出生的人除外）。医院入院数据表明，CVD治疗的改善可能部分促成了其死亡率的下降。
香港CVD死亡率的时间趋势与世界上许多其他经济发达地区相似。
