Meester Ronald, de Koning Jan, de Jong Mart C M, Diekmann Odo
Mathematical Institute, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Biometrics. 2002 Mar;58(1):178-84. doi: 10.1111/j.0006-341x.2002.00178.x.
We propose a new method to analyze outbreak data of an infectious disease such as classical swine fever. The underlying model is a two-type branching process. It is used to deduce information concerning the epidemic from detected cases. In particular, the method leads to prediction of the future course of the epidemic and hence can be used as a basis for control policy decisions. We test the model with data from the large 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. It turns out that our results are in good agreement with the data.
我们提出了一种新方法来分析诸如经典猪瘟等传染病的疫情数据。其基础模型是一个两类分支过程。它用于从检测到的病例中推断有关疫情的信息。特别是，该方法能够预测疫情的未来发展进程，因此可作为控制政策决策的依据。我们用荷兰1997 - 1998年大型经典猪瘟疫情的数据对该模型进行了测试。结果表明，我们的结果与数据吻合良好。
