Korenromp Eline L, Bakker Roel, De Vlas Sake J, Robinson N Jamie, Hayes Richard, Habbema J Dik F
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Sex Transm Dis. 2002 Apr;29(4):228-38. doi: 10.1097/00007435-200204000-00008.
The proportion of cases of genital ulcer disease attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) appears to be increasing in sub-Saharan Africa.
To assess the contributions of HIV disease and behavioral response to the HIV epidemic to the increasing proportion of genital ulcer disease (GUD) attributable to HSV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa.
Simulations of the transmission dynamics of ulcerative sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV with use of the model STDSIM.
In simulations, 28% of GUD was caused by HSV-2 before a severe HIV epidemic. If HIV disease was assumed to double the duration and frequency of HSV-2 recurrences, this proportion rose to 35% by year 2000. If stronger effects of HIV were assumed, this proportion rose further, but because of increased HSV-2 transmission this would shift the peak in HSV-2 seroprevalence to an unrealistically young age. A simulated 25% reduction in partner-change rates increased the proportion of GUD caused by HSV-2 to 56%, following relatively large decreases in chancroid and syphilis.
Behavioral change may make an important contribution to relative increases in genital herpes.
在撒哈拉以南非洲，由2型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）引起的生殖器溃疡疾病病例比例似乎正在上升。
评估艾滋病病毒疾病和对艾滋病流行的行为反应对撒哈拉以南非洲由HSV-2引起的生殖器溃疡疾病（GUD）比例上升的影响。
使用模型STDSIM对溃疡性性传播疾病（STD）和艾滋病病毒的传播动态进行模拟。
在模拟中，在严重的艾滋病流行之前，28%的GUD由HSV-2引起。如果假设艾滋病病毒疾病使HSV-2复发的持续时间和频率增加一倍，到2000年这一比例上升到35%。如果假设艾滋病病毒有更强的影响，这一比例会进一步上升，但由于HSV-2传播增加，这将使HSV-2血清阳性率峰值转移到不切实际的年轻年龄。模拟的性伴侣更换率降低25%，在软下疳和梅毒相对大幅减少之后，由HSV-2引起的GUD比例增加到56%。
行为改变可能对生殖器疱疹的相对增加做出重要贡献。
